RedBeard’s Curious Life

The essential foundation of our entire economy is energy. Some other support is provided by material property, time, and intelligence, but those are worthless without energy. In the face of a dwindling energy supply, changing climate, and increasing population, strain on our economy will likely increase.

The most basic transaction of bartering one thing for another consumes energy in the form of movement, so the trade itself must justify not only the value of the goods being traded, but the energy consumed to trade them. Modern trading logistics include transportation, storage, advertising, manufacturing, and raw materials. Each of those boils down to energy as an ongoing cost with some fixed costs assumed: transportation is simple it takes energy to move something; storage consumes energy in the form of employing people and maintaining warehouse or retail conditions; advertising consumes huge amounts of energy in the form of billboards, TV commercials, and other media; raw materials must be discovered and mined before they can be transformed into useful items in the manufacturing process. Occasional fixed costs are incurred by real estate acquisitions and other such things, but those costs are often defrayed long before their utility is worn out.

Life itself is dependent on energy, but most of the required energy is provided by the sun. Modern society draws more heavily on the energy pipe than natural fauna do, by mining and consuming oil, coal, and other energetic resources from the ground. If we don’t balance our energy consumption with our long-term production capabilities, then society will be facing an uphill struggle. Of course, the economy is always available to put a price on something, and as resources become more demanded or less plentiful, their prices will rise relative to other resources, but a rising energy cost has a pervasive effect on everything else.

Rising population numbers will eventually butt heads with dwindling energy availability, to the point that the marginal productivity gain of an additional person will be less than the total cost to keep that person alive at an acceptable standard of living. Essentially, the cost of living will outweigh the value of living.

Perhaps nature will have a corrective effect before that happens. We appear to be facing global warming that cannot be halted, which will have adverse effects on a multitude of people, by wiping out coastal population centers and drastically altering weather patterns and decimating crop growth. Perhaps the economy itself is a natural force, and the cost/value of living is simply an abstract objective measure of a natural force in action.

In either case, individuals will be faced with vital decisions such as supporting those in need, defending what they have against those who would take it, or taking what they can from those who have it. At first this will only happen in emergency situations, but will likely become more frequent and regular after those emergencies soften the impact of societal change.

What can an individual do to prepare for such an eventuality? Learn to live with less energy usage – try to live for a few days without burning any fuel, using any electricity, or eating anything from a retail outlet. That’s extreme, even in the most dire situation there will still be at least some energy to harvest and distribute, but emergency situations can lead to extended power cuts and broken infrastructure, as seen in New Orleans in the wake of a hurricane. Assemble an emergency cache with water, food, fuel, tools, medical supplies, and a gun. Learn to protect yourself and your property with vigilance and security measures. Learn to use a weapon, practice your marksmanship. Figure out who your good friends are and who you can’t trust in times of need.

You may not see an end to modern society in your lifetime. With the cost of living on the rise, global warming producing increasingly dramatic weather, and the global economy experiencing a quickening pace of volatility, the chances are increasing that you’ll be faced with an emergency or panic. I’d say it’s worth the effort to be prepared.